Leading in Contradiction: China’s Renewable Energy Power and the Dynamics of Ambivalent Leadership, Zhan Su

Zhan Su
Professor of International Business
Laval University
Canada

DOI: 10.47556/B.OUTLOOK2026.24.1

Abstract

Over the past decade, China has emerged as a central actor in the global renewable energy landscape, simultaneously becoming the world’s largest producer, installer, and exporter of solar photovoltaic technologies, wind turbines, and energy storage solutions. This rapid rise has fueled a dominant narrative portraying China as a “green leader” and a pillar of the global energy transition. However, such representations tend to obscure the complex and often contradictory foundations of this leadership. Behind China’s remarkable industrial performance lie profound structural, institutional, socio-environmental, and geopolitical tensions that call into question the coherence and sustainability of its leadership model.

The existing literature remains fragmented, typically emphasizing either China’s industrial dominance (e.g., economies of scale, cost leadership, technological upgrading) or its systemic constraints (e.g., coal dependency, governance fragmentation, ecological externalities), with limited efforts to integrate these dimensions into a unified analytical framework. This research seeks to address this gap by developing a multidimensional and systemic conceptualization of China’s leadership in renewable energy, distinguishing among material, institutional, and ideational forms of power, as well as between actual, perceived, and projected forms of leadership.

The central objective of this study is to critically assess the nature, scope, and limits of China’s leadership in renewable energy, situating it within broader transformations in the global political economy of energy and the emergence of a geo-economics of energy transition.

The study mobilizes an interdisciplinary theoretical framework combining:

1. Political economy of energy transitions, to analyze the co-evolution of state capacity, industrial policy, and energy system transformation (e.g., state capitalism, developmental state logic);
2. Global leadership theory, particularly distinctions between structural, institutional, and normative leadership, as well as concepts of hegemonic versus fragmented leadership;
3. Geoeconomics and techno-industrial competition, to examine how renewable technologies are embedded in strategic rivalries, supply chain reconfigurations, and “green” industrial policies;
4. Just transition and socio-technical systems approaches, to account for distributive effects, territorial inequalities, and the embeddedness of energy systems in broader societal structures;
5. Institutional complexity and multi-level governance theory, to capture tensions between central directives and local implementation within China’s political system.

Methodologically, the research adopts a mixed-methods design combining:

1. A systematic literature review (SLR) following PRISMA guidelines to map dominant narratives and theoretical blind spots;
2. Analysis of secondary quantitative and qualitative data (IEA, IRENA, World Bank, Chinese statistical yearbooks, firm-level databases);
3. Comparative case studies of key sectors (solar photovoltaics, wind, batteries);
4. Semi-structured interviews with policymakers, industry actors, and international stakeholders (including actors from the Global South involved in China-led projects).

Preliminary findings suggest that China has played a decisive role in accelerating the global diffusion of renewable technologies, significantly reducing costs and facilitating broader access to clean energy infrastructure. However, its leadership is better characterized by ambivalence, unevenness, and structural constraints, reflecting several tensions:

1. Industrial power vs. systemic vulnerability: while China dominates manufacturing, it remains exposed to critical dependencies (e.g., raw materials, export markets) and geopolitical pressures (trade restrictions, decoupling dynamics);
2. Green expansion vs. carbon lock-in: ambitious renewable deployment coexists with persistent reliance on coal and energy security imperatives;
3. Global influence vs. contested legitimacy: initiatives such as the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) position China as a key energy partner in the Global South, yet raise concerns about environmental standards, debt sustainability, and asymmetric dependencies;
4. Central ambition vs. local fragmentation: governance tensions between central authorities and provincial actors weaken policy coherence and implementation effectiveness.

These findings challenge simplified narratives portraying China as a unified “green hegemon” and instead suggest conceptualizing it as a “power in transition,” facing competing imperatives of economic growth, ecological transformation, and political stability.

Ultimately, the study argues that the sustainability and credibility of China’s leadership will depend less on its capacity to export technologies than on its ability to transform its domestic energy system, resolve internal contradictions, and contribute to a more cooperative and equitable global energy order.

This research makes three main contributions:

1. Theoretical contribution: It develops a multidimensional framework of energy leadership integrating material, institutional, and ideational dimensions of power, bridging political economy, international business, and international relations perspectives;
2. Empirical contribution: It offers a systemic and multi-level analysis of China’s renewable energy model, combining domestic dynamics with mechanisms of global influence;
3. Policy and managerial contribution: It provides insights into the strategic implications of China’s green industrial dominance for governments, multinational enterprises, and actors engaged in global value chains and energy transitions.