“An empirical analysis of the sustainability of intra-gcc merchandise trade during 1995-2015: is it all a utopian dream?”, Subhadra Ganguli
Subhadra Ganguli Associate Professor Ahlia University Manama Kingdom of Bahrain subhadra.ganguli@gmail.com
DOI: 10.47556/B.OUTLOOK2018.16.30
Purpose: One of the aims of a single currency zone is a thriving and robust intra-regional trade. Previous literature concluded that Bahrain exhibited high dissimilarity of exports within the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) compared to exports of other GCC states within the region ( Ganguli, 2018, forthcoming) during 1995–2015. This paper aims to evaluate the potential of a single currency GCC union by analysing the detailed export structure of goods between Bahrain and the rest of the GCC to check for export diversity.
Design/methodology/approach: A quantitative analysis was applied to time-series merchandise data of export items with a three-digit Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) code. These were extracted from the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTADstat) database for the period 1995–2015.
Findings: Bahrain’s merchandise exports within the GCC displayed significant diversity in terms of composition during 1995 to 2015. Merchandise export diversity has similarities with the diversification trends of the economy.
Originality/value: Evidence of export diversification from Bahrain to other GCC states shows that Bahrain can be used as a model for other GCC states for diversification of exports to create a sustainable GCC currency union.
Keywords: sustainability; GCC; SIC; exports; manufactured goods
