Tracing Weather Variability During the Winter Season in Sudan, H.E. Khogly
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H.E. Khogly
Sudan Meteorological Authority
Sudan
The underlying source of climate variability affecting Sudan is the fluctuation in agricultural production-related temperature. This study concerns the Sudan experience in applying seasonal climate forecasts, and investigates the tracing of weather variability during the winter season in Sudan. The importance of the impacts from the perspective of the Sudan economy is then reviewed. Production variability in agricultural, aviation and regions is described, together with the flow-on impacts to the economy generally. Seasonal climate forecasts are increasingly being used to benefit decision-making in the more climate-sensitive sectors of the economy. The second role of the study is to provide a broad research context for applications of seasonal forecasting to manage risk arising from climate variability. Farmers are the major group of potential users, and they have identified a more confident use of forecasts as a priority for research. Extensive, but neglected, research on how risky decisions are made is reviewed to look for opportunities for alternative ways of presenting probability information. The relatively recent impact of probabilistic thinking on human affairs suggests that the concepts are not intuitive. Alternatives could take account of research on biases in intuitive approaches, and therefore contribute to greater confidence in the use of seasonal forecasts. The paper concludes that the communication aspects of seasonal climate forecasts warrant greater priority if the potential importance of the forecasts in improved risk management is to be realised. Historical (2000-2015) daily mean temperature records from two meteorological stations in Dongla and Elfasher were analysed. It is planned to use a statistical method to obtain temperatures, normal and average from normal, by using analysis of variance (ANOVA) and regression analysis to predict temperatures for future years.
Citation: Khogly. H. E.: Tracing Weather Variability During the Winter Season in Sudan. In Allam Ahmed(Ed.): Home-Books-Proceedings-SDC, Vol. 1, pp. 11 - 12. WASD: Brighton, United Kingdom.